It is surprising to me how many people around the country think the entire Gulf of Mexico is affected by the Deepwater Horizon spill. That fact is that as of today the nearest beach to St Pete Beach with any oil on it is Fort Walton Beach, about 293 miles NW across the Gulf. The closest plume (sub-surface oil) is reported to be 238 miles out in the Gulf.
The Coast Guard continues to rate the chances of Pinellas County being affected by the spill as low. According to them, since oil sheens on the surface are eventually evaporated by the sun it is unlikely any surface oil would cover such a great distance. Our risk of oil exposure in Pinellas, if we were to be affected at all, would be tarballs which are relatively easy to clean from a beach. Therefore any environmental impact would be minor and hopefully short-lived.
The most likely scenario so far seems to be that the loop current will funnel much of the oil south of the keys. The loop current flows north into the Gulf of Mexico and loops west and south before exiting to the east through the Florida Straits, and comes no closer to Pinellas than 100 miles offshore. This is why Florida State officials are more concerned about the potential threat to south and east Florida rather than the west coast.
That’s all good news for the St Petersburg, Clearwater area. The bad news is that we’ve never had an oil spill this big, this close to us, and the best guesses are still just that – guesses. No one can predict what will happen if a hurricane were to whip through the oil – apparently it has never happened before.
As for the oil spills effect on property values obviously if you have a beach covered in oil prices for waterfront property will fall. Foreclosures and short-sales would accelerate. Investors would eventually reap the benefits after waiting to find the bottom of the market, just as they have in the melt-down in values over the last few years. Unfortunately for Lousiana, Alabama and the Florida panhandle that is the reality they are facing. As of right now all signs point to Pinellas, St Pete and Clearwater remaining oil free.
We’re watching the reports every day and will continue to monitor the oil situation as is pertains to real estate in the Pinellas, St Pete and Clearwater area. For now the outlook is as good as we can hope for considering the volume of oil still leaking into the Gulf.
Here are some good oil spill resources if you would like to keep an eye on things yourself:
- This map of the oil spill from CNN gives a good perspective of the distances involved.
- This forecast map from the College of Marine Sciences, University of South Florida offers a good visual on the motion of the spill.
- The folks over at Visit St Pete/Clearwater offer this St Pete Clearwater oil spill update page with webcams.
- The following is Pinellas County’s official site for oil spill coverage.
- And here is BPs official site for the spill.
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